Is this Kamala Harris’s moment?

The president has insisted he will not step aside, arguing he is best positioned to defeat Trump in November. But Democrats are nonetheless weighing the possibilities ahead, including the prospect that the party might find itself scrambling to nominate a successor if Biden, 81, is unable to overcome the increased skepticism from donors, party strategists and some Democratic lawmakers over his political future.

Those conversations have brought a renewed focus on Harris, her handling of the role of vice president and whether she would fare any better against Trump, 78 years old, than a weakened Biden would.

A document making the case for Harris, 59 years old, written anonymously by senior Democratic operatives who say they have no personal or professional ties to the vice president, has been circulating among Democrats. It argues that she is the “one realistic path out of this mess," according to a copy viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

While other prominent Democrats might jockey for the nomination even if Biden steps aside and endorses Harris, some within the party are warning about the ramifications of bypassing the first female and first Black vice president, as well as the first of Indian descent.

“She has been a very visible and vocal advocate for this administration," said civil-rights leader Rev. Al Sharpton, a Democrat. “She’s a loyal Democrat. I think the question is whether the Democratic Party will be loyal to women and loyal to Blacks, who have been loyal to them as symbolized by her."

For Harris’s strongest backers, that it is even a question whether a sitting vice president should be her party’s last-minute replacement at the top of the ticket is the latest sign she has been disrespected in the role. Her detractors, meanwhile, say she hasn’t proved she is up to the task.

An uneasy start

Not long after taking office, Biden initially handed Harris a portfolio that centered on two of the most complex issues facing the administration: immigration and voting rights. Both have long been entrenched in partisan politics on Capitol Hill and famously difficult to overhaul through legislation.

In a nod to immigration becoming a bigger political headache for Democrats, Harris began to lead the administration’s tougher rhetoric meant to discourage migrants from illegally crossing the U.S. Southern border. She also unveiled policies aimed at addressing the root causes of migration—but struggled to distance herself from the politics of migrant surges at the border, which wasn’t part of her mandate. Her efforts included new U.S. economic investments in Central America and measures to tackle corruption in the region.

“You can’t just deal with the symptom of the problem," Harris said of her role in the opening months of the administration. “You have to figure out what caused it to happen."

Harris additionally played a key role in building coalitions around the issue of protecting voting rights, a priority for Democrats and the Biden administration when it took office. But efforts to enact legislation were stymied early on when two moderate Democrats—Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona—refused to support a weakening of the chamber’s rules that would have enabled the party to overcome Republican opposition and pass election-reform bills with a simple majority vote.

“We’re not going to give up," Harris said at the time. “This is literally about the future of our country in terms of its democracy."

Missteps in high-profile interviews led to doubts—which have lingered—among some Democrats about Harris’s effectiveness. Some felt a trip Harris took to Central America early in her tenure was overshadowed by a televised interview in which she stumbled over a question about why she hadn’t yet visited the Southern border.

Harris’s backers have long argued she has been subject to more criticism and scrutiny in her role in part because she is the first woman and first Black person to hold the job.

Pushing back on antiabortion efforts

Many believe she found her voice as the administration’s lead messenger on abortion after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, in a decision known as Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.

“Her performance as vice president has improved markedly over the last two years," said Jamal Simmons, a former communications director for Harris. “You can divide her vice presidency clearly in half between pre- and post-Dobbs. What Dobbs did was give the vice president’s office a focus that became evident to everyone paying attention and was helpful in the Democrats having a surprisingly successful midterms in 2022."

The vice president has held a score of events focused on protecting reproductive rights, often using her platform to assail Republican efforts to curb abortion access through the courts and state legislatures. While Biden has also emphasized the issue at campaign events across the country, the president had been somewhat of a more reluctant messenger on abortion, as a practicing Catholic who had previously described his position on abortion as “middle of the road."

Some Democrats grew to see reproductive rights as a more natural fit for Harris, a former prosecutor who dealt with sexual-violence cases. Harris has often spoken of women’s suffering in a deeply personal and visceral tone, recounting her meetings with some who had been turned away from emergency rooms and miscarried in toilets.

“This is a healthcare crisis, and we all know who to blame: Donald Trump," Harris said last month while marking the second anniversary of the Supreme Court’s ruling overturning Roe v. Wade, at a campaign event in College Park, Md.

The vice president has made more than 60 trips to 20 states since January, according to her office. Next week, Harris is set to travel to New Orleans, Las Vegas, Dallas, and Indianapolis as part of direct outreach to key constituencies that include Black Americans, women and young people, her office has said.

A defender of Biden

Since the debate, Harris has been one of the biggest, if not the biggest, Biden defender. She took to CNN not long after Biden and Trump got off the stage, arguing that a bad performance shouldn’t outweigh what she called an otherwise successful presidency. That was the line other Democrats would later tack to in defending Biden—including, eventually, the president himself.

“I’m not going to let one 90-minute debate wipe out 3½ years of work," he said Friday during a campaign stop.

But almost instantly after the debate, Democratic donors and lawmakers privately fretted about whether Biden should be replaced on the ticket. Then those concerns spilled into the public the week after, with at least two lawmakers publicly calling for him to withdraw from the nomination.

Representatives for the vice president’s office and the Biden campaign didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The case for Harris, some Democrats say, is that a protracted and public fight over the nomination, were Biden to bow out of the race, would be a major distraction. Plus, some Democrats argue, in addition to her name recognition compared with alternatives, they note Harris would be uniquely positioned to inherit Biden’s campaign war chest and make for the most seamless transition.

A Wall Street Journal poll taken after the debate found 80% of voters believe Biden is too old to run for a second term, an increase from 73% in a February poll. The survey didn’t test whether other Democrats would present a stronger challenge to Trump than Biden has so far. But some 35% of respondents viewed Harris favorably compared with 58% who viewed her unfavorably, putting her approval rating roughly in line with views of the president.

“It is very difficult for a vice president to ever be seen, as long as they are the vice president, as their own voice separate from the president," said Democratic strategist Karen Defilippi. She said Harris’s numbers might change if she was standing as a candidate on her own.

Nearly three-quarters of Democrats held a favorable view of Harris, compared with 21% who viewed her unfavorably. Among Black voters, 58% viewed her favorably compared with 32% who viewed her unfavorably; and among young voters, about a third viewed Harris favorably compared with 60% who viewed her unfavorably.

Mike Bocian, a Democratic pollster from the firm GBAO, who jointly conducted the survey with Republican David Lee of Fabrizio Lee, said it wasn’t uncommon for a vice president and president to hold similar approval ratings among different subsets of voters.

Because her standing in polling appears just as weak as Biden’s, Democrats behind closed doors have been floating other names of a possible replacement. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg are among the biggest names Democrats have privately floated. Like Harris, they have largely defended Biden following the debate and deferred to his decision to carry on with his campaign.

The vice president has reaffirmed her support for Biden during calls with apprehensive Democratic Party leaders while underscoring his ability to bounce back from moments of political upheaval, according to people familiar with the matter. Joining Biden on an all-staff call with their campaign on Wednesday, Harris delivered a similarly defiant message in Biden’s favor.

“Joe Biden has devoted his life to fighting for the people of our country. And in this moment, I know all of us are ready to fight for him," Harris said, according to a person familiar with her remarks.

She made an equally impassioned call at a meeting with Biden and Democratic governors Wednesday to underscore the importance of party unity and standing behind Biden.

“This is about saving our f—ing democracy," Harris said, according to people familiar with the comment.

If Biden were to drop his bid for a second term, a possible endorsement of Harris by the president could dramatically increase her odds of taking his place on the ticket. She would still have to secure the support of party delegates, but Biden’s blessing would likely help her rally support.

Such a scenario would mark the culmination of a moment long anticipated since Biden became the oldest president to be sworn into office in 2021.

“People are looking for some new generational leadership, and we’ve got a very accomplished vice president," said former Rep. Tim Ryan, an Ohio Democrat who has publicly called for Harris to replace Biden as the party’s presidential nominee. “To me, it just makes a lot of sense to give her the opportunity."