Opinion
Mint Quick Edit | Welcome realism on Viksit Bharat
Summary
- A government approach paper on this 2047 goal lays out all that must be done to achieve it. Refreshingly, it does not overlook the risk of falling into a middle-income trap.
As the challenge of becoming a developed country by 2047 cannot be overstated, it’s good to see realism attend some of India’s official discourse on this goal. A government approach paper on Viksit Bharat lays out what’s needed. India’s economy must reach $30 trillion from $3.3 trillion currently, while per capita income would need to go up eight times from $2,392 per annum.
This would require 7-10% annual growth for the next 20-30 years, according to the paper. “Very few countries have managed to do this," it notes, citing reasons ranging from “structural to institutional and socioeconomic factors" for it.
The paper is refreshingly candid about India’s vulnerability to falling into a middle-income trap before the 2047 aim is reached. “As a nation, we need to avoid this trap and carefully work towards breaking out of it."
Also read: Budget 2024: It’s fiscally sound but a weak foundation for Viksit Bharat
The best insurance against it would be to ensure prosperity that’s less unevenly distributed across various socioeconomic strata. Our consumer market could suffer premature saturation if we fail to rebalance the benefits of rapid growth, which in turn could weaken investment and slow the pace of the economy’s emergence beyond a point. It’s not a trivial risk.
